Performances
Tactical Europe Portfolio :
performance (alpha) : +0.5% versus Stoxx600NR
Megatrend Europe Portfolio :
performance (alpha) : -3% versus Stoxx600NR
Core US Portfolio :
performance (alpha) : +1.6% versus S&P500
Strategic signal split (stocks only)
- Enter Long : 23.0% of stocks with an « enter long » signal in process
- Enter short : 4.8% of stocks with an « enter short » signal in process
- No signal: 72.1% of stocks of which last signal is an « Exit Long » or « Exit Short »
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Top 5 Trading Signals Europe
Top 5 Megatrend Signals Europe
Top 5 Trading Signals US
Top 5 Megatrend Signals US
Market Analysis
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Trading ideas
Voltalia has a rather favorable stock market history with a behavioral score of 6/10, so we consider the signal as mainly medium/long term.
Voltalia is a € 2 Bn market cap, France-based holding company engaged in the renewable Utilities sector. It develops and operates electric power stations in numerous countries, such as France, French Guyana, Brazil, Greece and Morocco. The Company generates electricity using a variety of renewable energy sources. These include wind, water, biomass and solar power. In addition, Voltalia specializes in carbon credit trading activities.
The Company operates several subsidiaries, including Anelia and Bio-Bar in France, Voltalia Guyane, SIG Kourou, SIG Mana and SIG Cacao in French Guyana, Voltalia Energia do Brasil in Brazil, Thegero in Greece and Alterrya Maroc in Morocco, among others.
Voltalia posted revenues for the Q1-22 at €98.3 million, up 54% (+48% at constant exchange rates), with energy sales and services contributing 44% respectively and 56% to earnings for the quarter. Quarterly production amounted to 0.7 TWh compared to 0.8 TWh in 2021, reflecting the drop in wind and solar resources and the increase in installed capacity in operation to 1,161 MW (+8%) at the end of March 2022 . The company confirms its ambition of 2.6 GW in operation by the end of 2023 coupled with a normative EBITDA in the range of € 275 to 300 million
Voltalia is a growth story, expanding its renewable assets and at the same time an utilities, therefore a regulated business with non-cycliclal profile. The growth/defensive profile is a positive in the current market phase.
Short term catalyst : Strong EBITDA increase, defensive profile.
This signal looks consistent with the European Renewables Utilities sector in Major Bullish Trend. There is currently 43% of Utilities Renewables stocks in bullish tactical signal and 86% in bullish strategic signal.
Our system also triggered an Enter Long Tactical signal on May 24, 2022 that imply a likely bullish acceleration. Encavis has a rather solid track record, with a Behavioral score of 8/10, therefore the bullish signal is to be considered mainly Strategic.
Formerly Capital Stage AG, Encavis is a € 3.1 Bn market cap Germany-based producer of electricity from renewable energy sources. The Company invests in solar and wind parks, which it also operates. The Company divides its activities into four segments: Solar Parks, which is engaged in acquisition and operation of ground mounted photovoltaic (PV) parks; Wind Parks, engaged in acquisition and operation of onshore wind parks; Institutional Clients, which, through Encavis Asset Management AG, offers customized portfolios or fund solutions for investments in renewable energies, and Technical Services, responsible for technical operation and maintenance of PV parks. The Company focuses on the acquisition of finished solar and wind parks that are already connected to the power supply system. The Company operates more than 160 solar and more than 60 wind parks across Europe, in Germany, Italy, France and the United Kingdom, among others.
Management confirmed in the capital investor day the 2025 targets, and stated it would see some upside if high electricity prices persists. 1.5 GW of mid- and late-stage projects onboarded, could be realised until 2025.
For 2022, Encavis is expected to post revenue of € 390 millions coupled with a 38% Ebit margin. EPS growth should reach double digit in the next 3 years. The net debt stand at € 1.5 Bn. The dividend yield is currently at 1.6%.
Short term catalyst : High Energy prices, new solar projects.
This signal looks consistent with the European Utilities Renewable sector inmajor bullish trend, while there is 71% of Renewable Utilities companies in bullish Tactical signal and 86% in bullish strategic signal.
Barco has a rather poor track record with a behavorial score of 3/10 therefore we consider the signal as mainly short term.
Barco is a € 1.8 Bn market cap and a Belgium-based technology company, which specializes in the design and development of professional visualization equipment and solutions. The company offers its products in such operating segments as Entertainment (primarily active in the field of digital cinema), Enterprise (including the control rooms and the corporate activity) and Healthcare (dedicated to the high-resolution visualization segments of radiology and mammography and IP-connectivity solutions for the surgical room). The company's products range includes display monitors, projectors, video walls, image processing and connectivity and interactivity software.
the Belgian company's joint venture, Cinionic, just announced it has won a major projection equipment contract with AMC Entertainment.
Barco just released a Q1-22 revenue growth of 20% combined with orders up +8% y/y. The order book reach €530 M at the end of march, up 51% y/y.
Barco is expected to grow revenues by 22% y/y in 2022 to € 977 m, and the operating margin by 500 bp to 7.5%. EPS are expected to rise by 70% in 2023 and 20% in 2024. The stock currently offers a dividend yield of 2%
Short term catalyst: Strong Q1 revenue growth, giant AMC contract.
This signal looks mainly company specific.
Melia is € 1.5 Bn market cap and the leading hotel operator in Spain. Revenues are mainly achieved via hotel operation (89%): Meliá Hotels & Resorts, Tryp Hotels, Sol Hotels, Paradisus Resorts brands; sale of weeks in tourist complexes (6%); and the development, sale and management of real estate assets (5%). Spain represent 51% of sales, Europe-Middle East-Africa 19%, and America 30%.
Melia is expected to strongly recover in 2022, with sales reaching € 1.4 Bn and a return to operating profit at €55M, corresponding to a 4% EBIT margin. The company is expected to fully recover its 2019 pre-covid activity level in 2023, with a € 1.8 Bn revenue and double digit margin. The net debt is expected to stabilize à € 2.7 Bn and to steadily decrease from 2023.
The dividend was cut in 2020 and is expected to resume in 2023.
Short term catalyst: Reopening, strong bounce in airline traffic .
This signal is consistent with the strong recovery in airlines traffic in Q1-2022.
Our system also triggered a Tactical Buy signal on April 21, 2022, that suggest a bullish acceleration. IBM has a weak track record, with a Behavioral score of 1/10, therefore the bullish signal is to be considered as mainly Tactical.
IBM is a $ 114 Bn market cap technology company which operates through five segments: Cloud & Cognitive Software, Global Business Services, Global Technology Services, Systems and Global Financing. The Cloud & Cognitive Software Solutions segment delivers integrated and secure cloud, data and artificial intelligence solutions to its clients. Global Business Services segment provides consulting, business process and application management services. Its Global Technology Services segment provides information technology (IT) infrastructure and platform services. The Systems segment provides infrastructure platforms to help meet the requirements of multi-cloud and enterprise AI workloads.
IBM announced in February it acquired Sentaca, a leading telco consulting services and solutions provider. The acquisition will accelerate IBM's hybrid cloud consulting business, adding critical skills to help communications service providers and media giants modernize on multiple cloud platforms, innovate, and transform their businesses.
Adjusted for the Kyndril spin-off, revenue grew at a solid pace for the first time in years thanks to cloud computing and consulting revenues. The company reported stronger than expected Q1-22 results, including a 8% revenue growth. For 2022, IBM is expected to post a $61 Bn revenue coupled with a 19.5% operating margin. EPS are expected to grow by double digit in the next 2 years.
The net debt standing at $44 Bn at the end of 2021 (2.5x EBITDA) remain a concern for the company.
The current dividend yield stand at 4.8%
Short term catalyst : Cloud growth, deleveraging.
This signal looks mainly Company specific but consistent with the US IT sector. There is currently 42% of US IT Services stocks in bullish Tactical signal and 58% in bullish Strategic signal.