Buy Signal on BioNTech (BNTX-US or 22UA-DE)

We had an Enter Long Strategic signal on December 2, 2019, triggered by our system on BioNtech, BNTX-US, the German ARNm vaccine company listed in both the US (ADR) and in Germany (22UA-DE).

Our system also triggered an Enter Long Tactical signal on November 19, 2021 that imply a likely bullish acceleration. BioNtech has a rather solid track record, with a Behavioral score of 6/10, therefore the signal could be considered as mainly strategic.

BioNtech is a € 62 Bn market cap, which developped an efficient ARNm vaccine for Covid-19, distributed by Pfizer. The Company focuses on patient-specific immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer and other serious diseases. It develops a broad product pipeline using different scientific approaches and technology platforms, including individualized mRNA-based product candidates, chimeric antigen receptor T-cells, checkpoint immunomodulators, targeted cancer antibodies and small molecules. In addition, the Company offers diagnostic products and drug discovery services for other therapeutic areas, including infectious diseases, allergies and autoimmune disorders.

BioNTech claims vaccine efficacy of 95% against COVID-19 in its phase 3 clinical trial against the ancestral strain of the virus. BioNTech generally also have slightly less cases of the rare heart inflammation side effect than competitors such as Moderna. BioNTech’s relative competitive position is stronger than Moderna but weaker than Novavax due to its higher pricing and cost of manufacturing, but the most important competitive disadvantage is its challenging stability profile. BioNTech is however expected to maintains its competitive manufacturing advantage as a result of its partnerships with Pfizer and Fosun Pharma and expands its market penetration at the expense to Moderna.

The covid vaccine market will likely become a permanent feature in the future of global healthcare products. Treatments will not replace the need for vaccination. BioNTech does not necessarily have a permanent competitive advantage in the covid vaccine market
That competitive marketing standing can potentially become unstuck should Novavax succeed at achieving its objectives during 2022.

The importance of the pipeline becomes very relevant for the longer-term valuation of BioNTech, but it looks too early to place any commercial value on the potential products under development. BioNTech has a healthy pipeline, but most molecules are at best in phase one trials. BioNTech is also developing vaccines for HIV and tuberculosis, and is working with Pfizer to develop an influenza vaccine. The markets for drugs to treat melanoma and solid tumors are forecast to total $12 billion and $322 billion, respectively, by 2025.

For 2021, BioNtech is expected to post a € 17.5 Bn revenue and a € 9.2 Bn net profit. In 2022, the revenue is expected to be almost stable at €17 Bn with a € 9.3 Bn profit while the balance sheet will then benefit from a € 20 .3 Bn net cash position.

Short term catalyst : New wave of Covid-19.

This signal looks mainly specific, and in the wake of new wave of pandemic.