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Analysis

Performances

9725 Trading signals triggered since 02/01/2013
Average performance per trade: 13.6% for an average duration of 8.0 months.
2695 Megatrend signals triggered since 01/09/2011
Average performance per trade: 139.2% for an average duration of 31.0 months.

Tactical Europe Portfolio :

+3.3% since 01/01/2020,
performance (alpha) : +7.2% versus Stoxx600NR

Megatrend Europe Portfolio :

+11.2% since 01/01/2020,
performance (alpha) : +15.1% versus Stoxx600NR

Core US Portfolio :

+32.8% since 01/01/2020,
performance (alpha) : +20.4% versus S&P500

Trading signal split (stocks only)

  • Enter Long : 44.6% of stocks with an « enter long » signal in process
  • Enter short : 0.7% of stocks with an « enter short » signal in process
  • No signal: 54.7% of stocks of which last signal is an « Exit Long » or « Exit Short »
The 5 best performances

Trades in process

Top 5 Trading Signals Europe

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
SINCH-SE
Sinch AB
820%
21/01/2019
NEL-NO
NEL ASA
554%
28/06/2018
SSO-NO
Scatec Solar ASA
403%
10/04/2018
EVO-SE
Evolution Gaming Group AB
402%
18/02/2019
MCPHY-FR
McPhy Energy SA
374%
02/06/2020

Top 5 Megatrend Signals Europe

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
ILM1-DE
Medios AG
5860%
22/10/2014
CDR-PL
CD Projekt S.A.
5281%
11/02/2013
SRT3-DE
Sartorius AG Pref
3999%
01/02/2012
DIM-FR
Sartorius Stedim Biotech SA
3517%
29/02/2012
EVO-SE
Evolution Gaming Group AB
3098%
04/05/2015

Top 5 Trading Signals US

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
ENPH-US
Enphase Energy, Inc
2293%
02/11/2018
PLUG-US
Plug Power Inc
836%
01/10/2019
NIO-US
NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A
801%
02/06/2020
TSLA-US
Tesla Inc
592%
18/11/2019
SHOP-US
Shopify Inc Class A
489%
22/01/2019

Top 5 Megatrend Signals US

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
NVDA-US
NVIDIA Corporation
3527%
22/10/2013
SHOP-US
Shopify Inc Class A
3135%
27/05/2016
ENPH-US
Enphase Energy, Inc
2298%
10/05/2018
TTD-US
Trade Desk Inc Class A
1961%
24/02/2017
AMD-US
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
1789%
01/06/2016
New

Market Analysis

01.
19/11/2020
Market phase: Overal bullish trend

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

A second wave of covid-19 is now gaining momentum in the US while apparently peaking in Europe, leading to profit taking in the US broad indices and European equities outperformance led by financials (including Insurance) and cyclicals such as Automotive and Small caps while the healthcare sector is the lagger. In the US the Technology sector is flat, with the Nasdaq100 moving sideways around the 12.000 pts level since August while the Russell 2000 (Small caps) is the strongest spot short term. Therefore investors are tug between short term worsening situation in the US, and a likely brighter mid term situation led by vaccine delivery within 6 months and a likely huge stimulus package delivered at the beginning of 2021. Then, while profit taking is not excluded driven by short term negative newsflow, there is clearly a floor as the market is already looking beyond the health crisis and a likely sustained recovery from H2-2021. This situation may lead to a more lasting than expected catching up of Europe by year end driven by financials and the cyclical/value components coupled with the outbreak cycle, as restrictions should begin to ease in few weeks in major European countries. To be noted : the strong momentum in the energy storage technology segment including stocks such as NIO, Tesla and Nikolas. We continue to favor a broad diversification in themes and sectors, with the risk/Beta couple at the core of stock selection.

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 46/100 (+1), into the "bullish" zone.
The market participation/density is positive. There is 51% (=) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 64% (-1) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 8% (-1) for the Stoxx600 and 6% (=) for the S&P500. Therefore the density analysis reflects a positive momentum in Europe and in the US (spread now at +43 in Europe and +58 in the US). During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.
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02.
10/11/2020
Market phase: bullish trend resume

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (vs 85% / 15%)

European markets surged dramatically yesterday, led by Banks, Oils and Tourism after Pfizer reported impressive phase 3 vaccine’s results showing more than 90% efficiency. This will have deep implications, restoring the economic activity to its full potential at the first place, lifting potentially the weakest sectors from multiyears lows, that could however take time. It may be too early to assess vaccine availability timetable and a global impact looks unlikely before at least H2-2021 but the outlook is significantly clearing up. The second effect which has already begun to materialize is heavy profit taking on typical « stay at home » stocks such as Zoom, or some e-business or cloud-software stocks. Another effect is the surge in US 10 year rates (0.93%), that may sooner than expected become a concern for investors, weighting negatively on Utilities and growth stocks and favor Banks. The rotation in process between Banks and Techs may however prove to be a short term and mainly one-time violent adjustment, as long as rates remain at low level and while the EPS cycle should remain in favor of the Tech-led business models. Our mapping shows a confirmed short term bullish reversal in Tourism, Banks and Media but not in Oils, neither in European Properties and Telecoms. However other sectors such as Automotive, Construction and Retail (ie. Inditex +14%) were also big winners of the yesterday trading session. These may be some segment to favor short term, waiting for the end of the « stay at home/Back to work » short term adjustement. Later on, Technology should resume its bullish trend while the weakest sectors will likely need a long time to go back to their pre-covid peak.

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 47/100 (+3), into the "bullish"zone.
The market participation/density is positive. There is 46% (+4) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 60% (+4) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 23% (-17) for the Stoxx600 and 14% (-10) for the S&P500. Therefore the density analysis reflects a neutral momentum in Europe and a positive momentum in the US (spread now at +23 in Europe and +46 in the US). During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.
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03.
21/10/2020
Market phase: Volatile trading range

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 85% / Cash 15% (unchanged)

There was no follow up on the Monday’s drop in equity markets that looks now on a « wait & see » mood. A concern looks to be the narrowing lead of Biden against Trump in polls, that ratchet up uncertainties back on the US presidential outcome with higher probability of a contested election. Meantime hopes for a relief package before the end of the week maintain a positive momentum for stocks, especially cylical ones.
In Europe, the Food & Beverage sector is weakening again led by Danone (in Major Bearish Trend) while Banks and Airlines continue to stabilize at low level and improve short term in relative terms.
However the main change in our indicators is on the Market Pressure index which is now above 50 at 52/100 and points for a Neutral phase rather than a "risk on" mood. That means that markets are now much less directional and more caution is required even if there is no correction in sight for the moment (correction signal at 58/100, major correction signal at 70/100). The surge in the MPI looks volatility driven with a VIX close to the 30 level.
In terms of participation, the situation remains unchanged for stocks in both the US and Europe, while profit taking continue on quality/growth stocks offset by value theme and small caps. The US 10Y rates is now back at a 4 months high (0.83%) and still rising, that is rather bullish for the economy and may eventually trigger a positive signal for US Banks (short term score currently improving) later on, if confimed. All in all a mixed bag driven by a volatile situation.
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04.
12/10/2020
Market phase: Normalization in process

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

The bullish view and Phiadvisor's full exposure to Equities in both the US and Europe was conforted by the strong rise in large indices (+2.1% for the Stoxx600 and +3.8% for the S&P500 last week) with broad participation led at the same time by Technology, Industrials and Financials.
Our Market Pressure Index receeded at 40/100, well into the "risk on" zone reflecting an easing in the volatility velocity (Vix spot and November futures) and more consistency within assets classes correlation.
There was no real rotation, but a point to notice is the outperformance of the weakest sectors in Europe (Oil & Gas, Telecoms and Banks) that led to a bunch of exit shorts in the Phiadvisor system, while Medias confirmed their bullish breakout in both the US and Europe. European Travels & Leisure sector (ETF TRV: +8%) was also a strong spot last week, as hopes for a new relief package boosted Airlines and Hotels such as Lufthansa, IAG or IHG in a similar way than the US segment (Hilton, Delta Airlines).
The number of shorts signals now only represents 2.9% of our universe (2100 stocks) while there is 43% of Enter Long, and performances are increasing on the long side and fading on the short side, as it is usually the case in bullish markets.
The undeperformance of the Swiss Index (we have now a Minor Bearish Relative signal on the SMI) points also for a "risk on mood" on markets.
In the US we have also a positive convergence between some "usual suspects" such a the Dow Jones Transportation which is on ultimate highs, US 10Y rates at a 4 months highs, and the Russell2000 outperformance (+6.9% last week).
This is pointing for an uptrend acceleration. We continue to favor stocks with Enter Long signals parts of sectors in Major Bullish Trends or Minor Bullish Reversal configuration (therefore including if any, Enter Long Signals on Medias and Travels & Leisure but no Banks neither Oil and gas), and looking again for more diversification when it is possible.
We remain cautious on shorts, as in the current context, false signals are likely.

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 40/100 (-3), into the "risk-on" zone (below 50).
The market participation/density is neutral/positive. There is 46% (+1) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 58% (=) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 35% (=) for the Stoxx600 and 21% (-1) for the S&P500.
Therefore the density analysis reflects a neutral momentum in Europe and a positive momentum in the US (spread now at +11 in Europe and +37 in the US).
During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.
Read more
05.
05/10/2020
Market phase: Back to volatile trading range

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 85% / Cash 15% (unchanged)

Last Friday trading session showed no "panic selling" led by Trump testing positive to Covid-19 but mostly another "flash rotation" in the wake of lingering optimism about the prospects for a US relief package after monthly data showed the improvement in the US labor market was loosing momentum, with 661,000 jobs added during the month, far fewer than in the previous months of the recovery. Meantime merger talks for spanish banks were driving the IBEX35 and the Stoxx600 higher.
Eventually, both the S&p500 (+1.5%) and the Stoxx600 (+2%) bounced back last week while Nasdaq and Techs also remained positive for the week (+0.9%) despite a 2.8% drop on Friday. All in all, markets are bumpy on a day to day basis, but remain overall positive despite the negative newsflow, while the volatility remain rather limited. European Utilities confirmed their strenghtening momentum (+4.2% last week) as well as Retail (+4%), while the Oil & Gas sector was once again the weak spot. The European Media sector is also strenghtening somewhat and is now in Minor Bullish Reversal, a positive for the sectoral participation while the Stoxx600 remain within its 3 months tiny trading range (780-820pts). Besides some "day-to-day noise" it is interesting to notice that major indices, while less directionnal, remain rather resilient coupled with limited volatility which confort the Phiadvisor's exposure of 100% Equity in the US and 85% in Europe (15% cash).

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 39/100 (+1), into the "risk-on" zone (below 58).
The market participation/density is neutral/positive. There is 44% (+1) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 55% (+1) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 41% (-1) for the Stoxx600 and 31% (-1) for the S&P500. Therefore the density analysis reflects a neutral to positive momentum in Europe and in the US (spread now at +3 in Europe and +24 in the US). During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.
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