Menu
Back

15/04/2021

Market phase: Overall bullish trend

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)


US indices closed mixed in yesterday trading session, with S&P500 falling despite stellar Big Banks results and the successfull Coinbase IPO as profit taking took place on the Technology sector with the Nasdaq down by 1% led by GAFAMs, Internet and Semiconductors sectors. WTI prices rose by c. 5%, the largest gain in a month, after weekly US data showed a surprisingly large drop in crude stockpiles likely due to weaker production from the Permian shale basin that once flooded the market. Therefore it was definitely a cyclical/Financial led trading session in the US. In Europe, there was a marked rebound in re-opening stocks that looks like the last "value" segment, as markets reassessed the J&J news, that could eventually have a minor impact on the vaccine rolling out as Pfizer is expected to increase deliveries dramatically, and as the J&J and Astra Zeneca vaccines should still be injected to people above 55, except in Denmark. The weak spot were defensive sectors in Europe, as the cyclical/value bounced back led by Basic Resources , Oil & Gas and Banks led by a weaker USD after inflation data calms tapering fears. There is currently no more clear driver in the markets, with almost all sectors and stocks in upward trend and alternance between themes on a daily basis. US 10 year rates remain stable near the 1.65% level, while the VIX remain at around 17 close to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic. The reopening stocks looks like the possible next trading opportunity to monitor, as it is still far from peak and showing relative strenght despite adverse conditions.

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 35/100 (-1), still into the "bullish" zone.

The market participation/density is positive. There is 81% (=) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 89% (=) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 4% (=) for the Stoxx600 and 2% (=) for the S&P500. Therefore the density analysis reflects a positive momentum in Europe and in the US (spread now at +77 in Europe and +87 in the US). During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.