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11/02/2021

Market phase: Overall bullish trend

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

More and more european banks are now back in bullish reversal, that is noticeable at the Stoxx600-sector level and also in the wake of a string of bullish signals, including this morning BNP and Mediobanca. This bullish reversal in process looks attributable to Q4-20 results which are eventually not as weak as feared, the likely end of the political crisis in Italy, a slightly improving rate curve amid expectations of a strong recovery in H2-21, and the prospect of a return to dividends payments. The move is also noticeable for european insurers, after a weak january month. US. inflation data released on Wednesday showed that the CPI was flat month-on-month, against the predicted 0.2% growth and the 0.1% growth recorded in December, while the FED reiterated it could accommodate annual inflation above 2% for some time before hiking rates. Therefore easy policy is going to stay there for a while, weighting negatively on the USD, a positive for emerging markets and commodities. Main indices marked a pause yesterday, after a string of bullish sessions and amid a flow of rather reassuring corporate Q4-20 earnings. The volatility remain rather flat at 22, within its new "normal" range of between 20 to 25. Our Market Pressure Index stand at 36, still pointing to a zone favorable to equities.